RacingSkillz
Dan The Man
Gold Circle Derby(Gr2) over 2400m at Clairwood on Saturday
Dan de Lago is improving at a rapid rate of knots, and after a sterling second to some peoples ‘July’ fancy Big City Life in the recent Gr1 Daily News 2000, rather stands out in this field.
A few of the opposition stand out as likely big improvers, but despite all that runaway trainers log leader Charles Laird should be celebrating come Saturday night, writes Ken Nicol.
The imported son of Encosta De Lago was as short as 1/7 when cracking his maiden at the second attempt, and has obviously always been rated by stable connections. He has really hit his stride since being sent over ground though, and reeled off a couple of fluent wins before that honourable defeat a few weeks ago. He virtually matched strides with Big City Life over the final 400m on that day, and looks rather difficult to oppose in the more limited context of this group.
Doomed Mission?
Captain Scott has been rather more successful than the polar explorer he was named after, and stayed on for a well beaten third in the Daily News. He has every chance of getting the extra here, and has a decent money chance again. Johnny Geroudis retains the ride, and he has to be respected.
Stable companion Dinner For One has attracted betting support on a few occasions, and finally brought some of his work to the track with a comfortable win at Scottsville a few weeks back. This is immeasurably stronger than that Graduation field though, and he hasn’t tried further than 1800m prior to this. Looks difficult.
Turkish Delight
Fenerbahce is already a Listed winner after taking the Sea Cottage Stakes at Turffontein in January. He was also third in the SA Derby, and has no question mark around his reserves of stamina. He failed to find extra after setting the pace in the Daily News though, and also went down to Captain Scott in identical circumstances in his penultimate. On exposed form he lacks the class to carry this off.
Robinson Crusoe
Robinson Crusoe is a fellow Listed victor, after running on stoutly to win the Politician Stakes at Kenilworth at the beginning of the year. A fourth in the Cape Derby and second in the Winter Guineas have followed, but he has rather operated in the shadow of stable companion Big City Life. He comes into this off a couple of rather flat efforts, and while he would be a danger at best, quite a few others make more appeal on current form.
Reptilian Charm
PE raider Lizard’s Desire is the only previous Graded winner in this field, after a runaway Gr3 EP Derby victory in May. He was beaten almost six lengths in the Daily News, but missed the break and found interference in the straight on that occasion. He should get a lot closer here with Marthinus Mienie aboard, and could have some upset potential if things go his way.
Ultras
Ultra Vires has run on to score all three of his wins over 2000m, and should appreciate going the extra for the first time. However he only carried 52kg when dead heating in the Listed Easter Handicap at this course, and winning this at levels will be far tougher. Especially when he crossed the line last of all in the Daily News after fluffing the break rather badly.
AslanAslan is highly progressive, and after winning his maiden as recently on 13 May has quickly added another two comfortable wins, all at this course. He beat fellow improver In Writing comfortably with the benefit of first run last time, and while now 1,5kg worse off with that one, remains one of those most likely to come out a serious danger to Dan De Lago. This race may have come along slightly early in his career, but he is an exciting prospect, and should have a bright future.
Mister SofteeMister Softee only has a solitary win in fourteen appearances, and appears an optimistic entry here. He was runner up in the Listed Nijinsky Derby at Turffontein in April, but received 4,5kg from winner Magical on that occasion, and has been well beaten in two subsequent appearances. He makes no real appeal.
Clever Boy
Bachelor Of Arts is a gutsy front runner, and has set the pace for all three of his wins. The strongest of those was at MR78 level however, and he was solidly trounced when taken to Arlington for the EP Derby. This field is far stronger, and the son of staying sire Saumarez appears outclassed.
In Writing
In Writing has started to fulfill his early potential in KZN this winter, and after a facile Graduation win, came from a long way back to finish strongly behind Aslan at MR83 level. He seems certain to have a decent race win somewhere in his future, but will likely be giving plenty of start once again turning for home here as he has pulled a very poor draw. He has real potential though, and shouldn’t be overlooked, although place money seems far more likely than the win.
Directorate
The Mike De Kock trained Directorate only has five runs under his belt, but has failed to place in a couple of attempts following a six months absence. He tries blinkers, and is drawn in pole position, but it’s impossible to fancy him on anything shown on the track so far.
Dealsdunn
Dealsdunn proved he is not just a smart sand horse by completing a hat trick of wins and scoring a maiden triumph on the turf at this course recently. He found more readily when asked after setting the pace, and is another who is almost certainly far better than his current MR of 83 would suggest. How much better only the race will tell, but he needs to be taken seriously.
Flying A Kite
Desert Kite has a couple of recent seconds against weaker to his credit, and is a proven stayer. He doesn’t appear anything more exotic than a decent handicapper though, and would be a shock winner.
Secret’s Out
Secret Symbol had won three in a row against far weaker before running unplaced behind Dealsdunn a month ago. Game as he is he, it looks extremely tough for the son of National Emblem at this level, and he makes no real appeal.
Satish
That only leaves Satish. The Herman Brown inmate was a narrow maiden winner at the fourth attempt after being beaten by moderate sorts like Qui Note and Fricker Road prior to that. His MR of 70 says it all really, and he has no realistic hope here.
About The Pace
Fenerbahce has used front running tactics of late, while Bachelor Of Arts, Dealsdunn and Lizard’s Desire have also all shown a liking for that role. The pace should be at least fair, and shouldn’t degenerate into any kind of farcical crawl.
Dan De Lago meets a few highly promising individuals here. However he himself is undoubtedly on the upgrade, and has the advantage of being tried and tested at this level. He will take a lot of beating. Aslan, In Writing and Dealsdunn all have ample scope, and will give some cheek, while of the more exposed runners Captain Scott is another capable of mounting a sustained challenge.
Torn To Pieces
Gold Circle Oaks(Gr2) over 2400m at Clairwood on Saturday
A far from incendiary group will go to post for this event, as for one reason or another the first three finishers in the recent Gr1 Woolavington are all missing. The lightly raced Lovetorn came from well off the pace to finish just out of the places on that day. She seems likely to be well suited by the extra, and the lightly raced imported daughter of Giant’s Causeway appears the one to beat here, writes Ken Nicol.
Dean Kannemeyer’s charge quickened up impressively to win her two most recent Cape starts(both over 2000m), and before that was runner up to Love Is In The Air who will be hard to beat in the Winter Oaks at Kenilworth a day later. She came into the Woolavington off a near four month break, and should have come on for the outing. Stable jockey MJ Byleveld retains the ride.
Goat
Paul Lafferty’s Goat has the highest MR in this contest, and can boast a Gr1 fourth at this course as a Juvenile. She also filled that position in the KZN Fillies Guineas, and went into the Woolavington as one of the more fancied runners, but made absolutely no impression, eventually trailing in more than eight lengths adrift. She has a good record at Clairwood though, and at best would be a major contender. Having Piere Strydom up is a bonus.
Golden Scold
Golden Scold filled a minor place in both the Gauteng Fillies Guineas and Oaks. She then only had two behind her in the Woolavington, and hasn’t actually won a race since being successful on debut last April. A consolation prize should mark the limit of her ambitions once again.
Marooned
Bedloe’s Island became the only previous Graded winner in this field with the scratching of Jet Goddess. That was a frankly substandard Gr2 SA Oaks at Turffontein in April, something that became abundantly clear when the first four in that race made up the quartet for last in the Woolavington. She has to be better than that effort, and given her proven staying power could well finish in the money here. Still hard to see her actually being victorious however.
Blasting Off
Mars Star was always handy in the Woolavington, before weakening in the latter stages. That doesn’t auger well for her prospects as she ventures beyond ten furlongs for the first time. Above average as she is, the daughter of Giant’s Causeway doesn’t quite appear to have quite the right stuff to succeed at this level.
Surfin’ Safari
Star Safari is game, and was just touched off by Bedloe’s Island in the Gauteng Oaks. No stamina worries then, but she finished stone last in the Woolavington, which hardly inspires confidence, although she is obviously far better than that bare formline would suggest.
Fellow Weiho Marwing inmate Boho Chic put a spell of poor form behind her when third over further at Turffontein a week ago. She hasn’t done anything in her career until now to suggest a Graded winner is lurking however, and makes no real appeal.
Bastille Belle
Bastille Belle has now contested six Stakes events, but her only place was a well beaten third in the previously discounted SA Oaks. She won her debut(on Sand) last November, but hasn’t added to the tally since, and seems unlikely to do so on this day. Apprentice Donovan Mansour rides, despite his claim not applying in this contest.
Gilmore GirlGilmore Girl stays well, having already won a Fillies event over further. That’s where the good news ends though, as she doesn’t appear anything more than a decent handicapper. The Brazilian import appears well out of her comfort zone here, even with Felix Coetzee up.
Sailing Away
Maritime Mist seems to be heading the right way. She ran on well to win a Fillies handicap over slightly shorter at her penultimate, before failing to quicken in a minor event on the same day as the Woolavington. Yet to compete in a stakes event of any sort, she could sneak into a minor position with any further improvement.
De Kock Trio
Mike De Kock fields four, but all have current MR’s of under 80. Dancing Lady appears the stable elect with Anthony Delpech up, who indeed partnered her to both of her wins. She attracted solid betting support in a MR83 fillies event on the same day as the Woolavington, and ran on stoutly to be narrowly beaten by Her Ladyship. That doesn’t look enough here, even though there seems little doubt she will get the trip.
Muzi Yeni is in top form currently, and rides Flaming Flower. She comes into this in excellent nick, and narrowly failed to get to Ami Amor last time, after winning her previous two. She is yet to compete above MR78 level however, and will need big improvement to make any real impression.
The vastly experienced Robbie Hill has been engaged on Hallandale. She won last December, but has finished unplaced in four appearances since. It looks extremely tough for her in this company.
Reserve runner Ginger Hill was a well beaten favourite a couple of times before cracking her maiden at the fourth attempt over a mile. She faced a particularly weak bunch on that occasion, and while she may well appreciate the extra ground, she still appears out of her depth in the event she gets a run.
Hersonet
Unusually the Charles Laird/Anton Marcus combination isn’t represented by an obvious contender. Hersonet is yet to go beyond 1800m, and hasn’t met anything stronger than a MR85 Fillies line up until now. She doesn’t appear to be in the class of the major contenders here, but stranger things have happened…
Queen’s Bay
Queen’s Bay is an interesting entry. The daughter of Fort Wood won by a steeplechase margin on her sand debut, and then got going late for third behind the progressive Taiki Dancer a few weeks ago following a six month break. Trouble is both were over seven furlongs, and she is out of a dam who only won over sprint trips. Very hard to say how she will do here, and even if getting the extra she will need to be far better than rated to get a blow in. Which is more than likely of course.
Kiss
Smooch took five attempts before winning her maiden at 16/1. Unsuccessful in four appearances since, she has never even competed above MR78 level and appears overmatched even in the absence of anything of genuine top class here.
About The Pace
Bedloe’s Island has done best when setting the pace, and from a good draw Johnny Geroudis will probably try to dictate. The pace should be fair if unspectacular.
Lovetorn appears highly promising to my eyes, and after finishing strongly in the Woolavington, should appreciate the extra 400m and longer run in she gets here. She has an outstanding chance of an opening Graded win.
Goat has long threatened to win a serious race, and goes well at this course. She would be a serious danger if back to best. Bedloe’s Island seems best of the rest, while Queen’s Bay is the obvious unknown quantity. Of the real outsiders Dancing Lady and Maritime Mist both make some appeal.
